Following an offensive in December 2025, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a militant group that receives substantial military and financial support from the United Arab Emirates, has recently announced its new constitution. According to a speech given by Aidarus al-Zubaidi, the chairman of the STC, in the UAE, a 2-year transitional period will be followed by a UN-supervised referendum on self-determination.

However, viewing this situation as the return of socialist South Yemen is misleading. Beneath the socialist-era flags and the rhetoric of self-determination lies a project that is both imperialist and closely linked to the British creation of the Federation of South Arabia, except that this time, instead of the British being in power, a proxy group is going to be in power, led by radical Salafi Islamist ideologies and tribalists, and fueled by reactionary imperialist and Zionist interests.

The declaration comes at a moment when the STC’s forces started losing all their gained territory they had gained in the East, particularly in Hadramout and Al-Mahra, following a counteroffensive carried out by the internationally recognized government of Yemen. This also coincides with indicators of military repositioning, most notably the withdrawal of units from the “Southern Giants Brigades” from the western coast to Aden, and defensive mobilization in anticipation of counter-reactions to the declaration.

What is the Southern Transitional Council?

To understand what the Southern Transitional Council (STC) is and why it exists, it is essential to have a basic understanding of the history of modern Yemen. Before the start of the 14 October Revolution of 1963–1967, nationalist political movements such as the Front for the Liberation of Occupied Southern Yemen (FLOSY) and the National Liberation Front (NLF), which was later transformed into the Yemeni Socialist Party, were formed with the aim of liberating Yemen from the 120+ years of British colonial rule. They aimed to unify the more than 20 puppet Sheikhdoms, Emirates, and Sultanates into a single state based on socialist and Arab nationalist principles, ultimately seeking to unify with the North, which at that time was embroiled in a civil war against the backward Imamate.

However, a rival faction known as the South Arabian League (SAL) or Rabitat Abna’ al-Janub al-Arabi also emerged. Although the SAL advocated for independence from direct British rule, it initially gained favor from the British and the conservative Saudi monarchy. Their primary objective was to prevent the “Yemenization” of the South Arabian mini-states. The SAL promoted the identity of “South Arabia,” a term introduced by the British to distinguish the region from the rest of Yemen. This identity represented the traditional feudal elites, including sultans and wealthy merchants, who were apprehensive about the NLF’s social justice initiatives.

By the end of the 14 October Revolution, the NLF emerged victorious and, on 30 November 1967, announced the establishment of the People’s Republic of Southern Yemen. Two years later, the 22 June Corrective Move transformed the state into a revolutionary Marxist-Leninist entity, rebranding it as the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY). During this period, however, groups like the FLOSY and the SAL, which had retreated to northern Yemen, began conducting raids into the newly formed state with support from British and Saudi forces.

Today, the STC can be seen as a modern manifestation of the SAL. While they primarily display the PDRY flag for populist appeal, they also raise the flag of the British-created federation. By officially adopting the designation “State of South Arabia” in their 2023 National Pact, the STC effectively renounced the revolutionary identity of the PDRY. Most, if not all, STC members oppose the form of governance of the PDRY and do not claim to be successors of the 1963-67 revolution; rather, they represent the resurgence of the elites who were defeated during that era.

Why separatism in the first place?

On 22 May 1990, the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen unified with the Yemen Arab Republic, forming the modern-day Republic of Yemen. This process transformed Yemen from two separate states, each ruled by a single party, into a liberal democracy. In 1993, Yemen held its first democratic election, resulting in the North’s General People’s Congress (GPC) party receiving 28 percent of the vote and winning 123 seats. The South’s Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) garnered only 18 percent, securing 56 seats, while the newly formed Islamist al-Islah party received 17 percent and obtained 62 seats.

At that time, there was a rise of Islamism in Yemen and the broader Islamic world, which the Yemeni Socialist Party failed to recognize. Consequently, the unification process effectively became a handover of power to the North’s ruling party. Returning Arab-Afghans, who had fought the Soviet Union, initiated an assassination campaign against members of the YSP, resulting in the deaths of nearly 400 party cadres.

Additionally, members of the old South Arabian elite returned to reclaim land confiscated by the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) or to reassert their influence in tribal areas, particularly in Abyan and Lahij. Some resorted to force to seize land. Tribalism and political Islam emerged again in the South, encouraged by Ali Abdullah Saleh and leaders of Islah.

For the YSP, separating from the North made sense during this time. On May 21, 1994, Ali Salem al-Beidh declared the independence of the Democratic Republic of Yemen (DRY) on Aden Radio, proclaiming it an independent state with its capital in Aden. Initially, the newly declared state was not secessionist; al-Beidh wanted to include the North, describing the DRY as a “nucleus for a unified Yemen,” founded on the principles of the Document of Pledge and Accord, a document of national consensus. Somalia was the only country to recognize the DRY.

Ali Abdullah Saleh, the leader of the GPC and president of the Republic of Yemen, opposed al-Beidh’s initiative and initiated an airstrike campaign against Aden, complemented by a ground invasion. The bombing was indiscriminate, targeting even buildings such as museums and historical archives (including the only historical archive in Dhofar, located in Aden), leading to a substantial civilian death toll.

Today, the Yemeni Socialist Party has largely moved away from the idea of separatism. However, Saleh’s bombing campaign ignited unwarranted hatred from Southerners towards the people of the north, rather than the politicians of the GPC who supported the campaign. Regionalist stereotypes persist, with terms like “Dihbashi”, a slur originating from the TV show “The Adventures of Dihbash”, still being used to insult anyone born in the modern-day governorates that were part of the former Yemen Arab Republic. An unrecognized faction of al-Hirak

Following Saleh’s victory, he forced all former PDRY army personnel into early retirement instead of incorporating them into the new army of Yemen, effectively cutting off all their salaries. Saleh manages to suppress the calls for separation at that time, but in 2007, protests by the same people whom Saleh forced into retirement broke out in Lahij. Fueled by the deteriorating conditions of Yemen under the Saleh regime, and nostalgia for the PDRY, those protests were organized by the Southern Mobility Movement, also known as al-Hirak. From al-Hirak, a non-violent protest movement that calls for self-determination in terms of a federal region or secession, an extremist faction sprung up: The Southern Transitional Council. Although it was founded in 2017 in order to free Aden and the rest of the South from Houthi control, it started to deviate away from that goal once it was accomplished.

Today, the Southern Transitional Council claims that it represents “the unified Southern people.” This claim belies a more complex reality: one of tribal hegemony and lies. Rather than being a national movement, the STC is fundamentally a regionalist project, particularly dominated by the trio of Dhale, Lahj, and Yafa. Although the STC claims that it is the leader of that Southern Movement, the leaders of the movement itself denied the claim. In the newly “liberated” East, their presence was perceived as an occupying force. This discontent erupted in December 2025 when the Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance organized mass protests against the STC, denouncing what many locals view as a blatant invasion. For the residents of Hadramawt, the arrival of the STC marked a disturbing transition to a new form of foreign tribalist tyranny that emanates from the south-western region.

The assertion of the STC that it acts as a “secular bulwark against terrorism” contrasts sharply with the reality of its military foundation. The STC’s strength relies heavily on the Giants Brigades, also known as Al-Amaliqa, which are spearheaded by the religious extremist Abu Zara’a al-Muharrami. These brigades are more interested in advancing a sectarian agenda than fostering secular democracy, let alone restore a Marxist-Leninist state. While STC leaders don tailored suits and engage with Western capitals, the forces they command on the ground are deeply rooted in Salafi extremism, viewing political pluralism as nothing short of heretical.

The STC’s aspirations resonate within the broader context of a triad of imperialism that encompasses the UAE, Israel, and the West. The UAE, through corporate entities like Global South Utilities and AD Ports Group, is pursuing what can be termed “geoeconomic terraforming.” This strategy signals a departure from traditional state-building, focusing instead on constructing a network of corporate-guarded ports and solar farms that transform the landscape.

Further complicating the situation is the connection to Israel. STC leaders have openly expressed support for the Abraham Accords, and by late 2025, reports emerged suggesting that the STC was facilitating the creation of joint UAE-Israeli maritime intelligence hubs on Socotra. This move threatens to shape “South Arabia” into a strategic outpost for Israeli interests in the Indian Ocean.

What is the ideology of the Southern Transitional Council?

The Southern Transitional Council operates within an ideological framework marked by a deliberate historical erasure. To truly understand their intentions, one must look beyond their flags and slogans to the fundamental components of their political identity. At the heart of their agenda is a revival of colonial terminology, a shift back to tribal feudalism, and a strategic alliance with religious extremism.

A significant ideological pivot for the STC is their move from the term “South Yemen” to “South Arabia” (al-Janub al-Arabi). This change is not just superficial; it represents a calculated revival of a British administrative category created in the mid-20th century to distance the South from the republican and nationalist movements gaining traction in the Arab world. Historically, the South Arabian League (SAL), the ideological precursor of the STC, utilized this identity to safeguard the interests of sultans and merchant classes that thrived under British rule. By adopting “South Arabia” in their 2023 National Pact, the STC effectively severs its ties to the very idea of Yemeni nationhood. They have replaced the anti-imperialist and internationalist socialism of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen with a narrow, exclusionary regionalism. This ideology functions in the modern context as a “protectorate” narrative, framing the South not as a sovereign nation but as a strategic asset under the control of foreign powers, with the UAE assuming the role once held by the British Crown.

While the 14 October Revolution aimed to modernize the South by abolishing tribalism and land ownership titles, the STC’s ideology reflects a move toward “re-feudalization.” Their governance structure dismisses the concepts of centralized power and egalitarianism in favor of a system dominated by local “strongmen” and tribal militias. By empowering select tribal factions—particularly from the Dhale and Lahj regions, the STC has revived the British “Forward Policy” from the 1950s. This divide-and-rule strategy focuses on controlling isolated strategic hubs like the Port of Aden and Socotra Island, while allowing the surrounding areas to devolve into militia rule. This approach lacks the characteristics of a modern state and resembles that of a mercenary enclave, where sovereignty is effectively auctioned off to the highest bidder in exchange for the survival of tribal elites, transforming the South into a network of corporate-guarded “Special Economic Zones” serving UAE and Western interests.

The STC leadership presents a “secularist” front to Western audiences, portraying themselves as protectors against the threats posed by the Houthis or Al-Qaeda. However, behind this façade lies a cynical merger of tribalism and Madkhali Salafism. Their military forces—the Security Belt and Giants Brigades—are deeply influenced by a rigid Salafi worldview that stresses unwavering loyalty to their patron, the UAE, and promotes violent opposition to political adversaries. This ideology of “Militant Quietism” allows the STC to employ terrorist tactics, including infamous acts of torture and targeted killings, while keeping plausible deniability for their international supporters. In this ideological construct, anyone who advocates for a unified Yemen or questions the authority of the STC is labeled not merely as a political rival but as a “deviant” or “occupier.”

Ultimately, the STC’s ideology has evolved toward an open acceptance of Market Imperialism and realignments within the region. Their willingness to engage with the Abraham Accords and collaborate with Israeli maritime interests signifies a profound betrayal of the Arab nationalist principles established in 1967. The “State of South Arabia” they envision represents an ideological void in which national dignity is traded for maritime security contracts. Their goal is to create a state that serves as a strategic garrison for both the UAE and Israel, securing vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea while local populations remain ensnared in cycles of poverty and tribal conflict. This scenario reflects the ultimate “counter-revolution,” with the sacrifices made by the martyrs of 1963 being exploited to establish the very type of foreign-controlled buffer state that those martyrs fought to resist. The STC operates as a fragmented, tribal police state, governed by religious extremists and funded by regional monarchs, all while serving the strategic interests of Israel, the West, and Arab reaction. It’s time to stop labeling this situation as a revolution or a “restoration of South Yemen”; instead, it represents the restoration of the colonial-era South Arabian League. This shift constitutes a betrayal of the 14 October Revolution and poses a serious threat to Yemeni sovereignty.

War Crimes and Human Rights Abuses

Since its emergence, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by UAE militias such as the Security Belt, Giants Brigades, and Hadhrami Elite Forces, has committed violations of international humanitarian law, particularly evident during the December 2025 “Promising Future” offensive.

The STC’s campaign has evolved from mere political repression to outright identity-based persecution. During the campaign, human rights organizations, including Women Journalists Without Chains, documented chilling instances of mass arrests driven solely by regionalism and ethnicity. During their takeover of Seiyun and Al-Ghaydah, STC forces indiscriminately targeted individuals from northern Yemen, arresting innocent laborers, street vendors, and students simply because of their origin. This isn’t just unlawful; it’s a blatant act of discrimination that reflects a sinister agenda. Hundreds of families were violently uprooted from their homes in Wadi Hadhramaut, a brutal practice tantamount to a crime against humanity under the Rome Statute.

Moreover, the STC’s tactics include operating a ghastly network of “informal detention facilities” that elude any oversight by the Yemeni judiciary. Reports from December 2025 expose the horrifying situation at the Seiyun Airport black site, where captured soldiers from the 1st Military Region were subjected to extrajudicial executions and grotesque acts of “industrial-scale” torture. The organization Mwatana has documented over 130 cases of enforced disappearances in 2024 alone, with a staggering number of these attributable to the STC in Aden and Lahj.

The STC’s façade of a secular agenda crumbles in the face of its relentless assault on civil society, especially concerning women’s rights. In May 2024, STC forces brazenly seized the headquarters of the Yemen Women’s Union in Aden, extinguishing one of the few remaining sanctuaries for domestic violence victims. Their attacks extend to journalists as well; any reporter daring to criticize the “Emirati occupation” or expose the STC’s economic failures faces arbitrary arrest, systematically silencing dissent.

By December 2025, the surge in identity-based arrests has become a chilling reality. A harrowing report from the Group of Eminent Experts captures the plight of a survivor from an STC “Security Belt” facility, who recounted, “They didn’t ask for my politics. They asked for my birthplace. Because I was from the north, they used the ‘grill’ [suspension torture] on me for three days. They told me ‘South Arabia’ has no room for northern filth.” This testimony lays bare the dangerous and oppressive nature of the STC, revealing a regime that thrives on division and brutality.

Violations of International Law

The actions of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) during “Operation Promising Future” represent more than mere political maneuvers; they constitute egregious violations of the international legal order. A formal legal analysis of the situation highlights a troubling pattern of systematic criminality.

One of the most alarming violations is identity-based persecution, as outlined in the Rome Statute, Article 7(1)(h). This involves the systematic arrest and deportation of northern Yemenis in Seiyun and Al-Ghaydah based on their ethnicity and origin.

Additionally, there are grave concerns regarding extrajudicial executions, particularly in violation of the Geneva Conventions III and IV. Reports from December 2025 detail the summary execution of captured soldiers from the 1st Military Region at the Seiyun Airport black site, raising serious humanitarian issues.

The International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance (ICPPED), specifically Article 2, has been breached as well, with over 130 documented cases of civilians disappearing into STC “Security Belt” facilities without any form of judicial oversight.

Lastly, the use of torture, in violation of the UN Convention Against Torture (CAT), has been reported, including the cruel application of the “grill” method and the use of electric shocks at facilities in Bir Ahmed and Seiyun. These actions underscore a deeply troubling disregard for human rights and the rule of law.